LAS VEGAS, April 30 (Reuters) - Zinc and lead prices will remain low through 2009 as the global economy contracts, but their average prices should rise gradually heading into 2010 as demand picks up amid modest economic improvement, a senior industry analyst said.
Addressing participants at this year's Institute for Scrap Recycling Industries' (ISRI) convention, Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst at Calyon Credit Agricole in London, shared his preliminary outlook for economic and metal price turnaround.
Bhar's early forecasts show sizeable contractions for the U.S., Japan, Europe, and Latin American economies this year, along with much slower growth for developing countries.
"Countries that were growing very quickly will not be immune to the global slowdown. Because they are export oriented, China, Japan and Germany will have problems," he said, predicting a 1.0 percent contraction in world GDP.
Calyon sees 2010 as a year of recovery and a return to growth, though at rates below previous recessions, as debt that now saddles many countries carrying out huge fiscal stimulus plans will have to be settled. The trend of paying down debt will extend to individuals and businesses as well.
"Because of that, unlike in previous recessions, recovery will take much longer than we've seen in the past," Bhar said.
But massive injections of liquidity and interest rates close to zero in many countries will help stabilize the economy and encourage recovery going forward.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/motoringAutoNews/idUKN3014412820090501
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